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On December 6th ADP said Private-sector jobs rise 158,000 in November. Hiring pace is consistent with 'modestly below-trend' economic growthBased on a string of huge misses by ADP, I predicted the official November numbers would badly miss as well, coming in at 88,000. Bart at NowAndFutures predicted 116,500. I offered to wager a box of Omaha Steaks (10-oz ribeyes) on the outcome. Fortunately for me Bart declined. ADP was indeed high but I would have lost the bet. Here are the official employment numbers for November 2006.

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? A real estate broker Tuesday accused Lennar Homes of shoddy workmanship at three homes in the Martin's Crossing subdivision on Kanner Highway, including roof and electrical problems he called potentially life-threatening. Speaking during a Martin County Commission meeting, broker Mike Morgan said he is filing complaints against Lennar Homes with the state Department of Building and Professional Regulation, the Florida Attorney General and the Federal Trade Commission. Inspections of the three houses on Fleming Way showed defective roofs with loose and broken tiles and incorrect installation that might not be able to withstand a hurricane, Morgan charged. In addition, Morgan charged that stucco installed on the houses was too thin and probably would lead to moisture behind the walls and ultimately mold. NOTE: Although we are based in Florida, we are working...

I recently finished reading two books, both of which I can recommend. The first is 'Just What I Said' by Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum and the second is 'Master Traders' by Fari Hamzei of Hamzei Analytics. I did not know what to expect from either book, but once started they were both hard to put down. The books are completely different in style and content and perhaps who they will appeal to. Let's take a look at each. Just What I Said'Just What I Said' will appeal to anyone who wants to learn how the real economy works, in easy to understand lessons cleverly disguised as light hearted articles. The book (broken out into 19 distinct recurring themes) is a collection of the best columns that she has written for Bloomberg over the past seven years, some 1300+ columns in total. The amazing thing is her columns are as pertinent today as when she originally wrote them. There are so many misconceptions about the economy floating around that simply refuse to d...

Inquiring minds just might be asking for a quick global recap of the current state of affairs in the global credit crisis. Here goes:Global Credit Crisis European StyleECB emergency fund tapped for €3.9bnMinyan Peter: Why Europe Matters MoreMinyan Peter: Should we see more trouble in the European bank market - and remember, we've already taken down two German banks and a British bank - I believe that all bets are off on the dollar/Euro exchange rate. At least in the short run. Global Credit Crisis U. S. StyleCommercial Paper Market in U. S. Shrinks for Seventh Week in Row, Fed Says

I have received numerous Emails asking me to comment on Fannie Mae's fuzzy math and More doubts about Fannie Mae's disclosures. Tanta on Calculated Risk's Blog explains the situation quite well in a very lengthy post enh1d Fuzzy Math or Fuzzy Reporter? Following are some snips from Tanta. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? its credit loss ratio in the Q3 filing. .... Eavis, moving from a change in presentation to a change in calculation with intent to mislead at the speed of light, says “Uh oh. It’s Enron all over again.” .... Fannie Mae stock started to tank badly, and Fannie scheduled an analyst conference call for Friday morning to address this one very specific issue in one table in the Q. Fannie Mae explained, among other things, that the item excluded from the credit loss ratio calculation is, actually, included in net charge-offs on the consolidated financial statements. Howe...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? A record 17.9 million U. S. homes stood empty in the third quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure. The figure is a 7.8 percent gain from a year ago, when 16.6 million properties were vacant, the U. S. Census Bureau said in a report today. About 2.07 million empty homes were for sale, compared with 1.94 million a year earlier, the report said. New foreclosures have risen to a record, led by defaults in adjustable-rate loans to people with tainted or limited credit histories, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Home - price declines and tougher lending standards are making it difficult for owners who fall behind in mortgage payments to sell or refinance into better loans. The U. S. homeownership rate fell for the fourth consecutive quarter to 68.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, from 68.9 percent a year ago, ...

Let's take a look at some current economic reports about Japan. Hemscott is reporting Japan monetary base falls for 10th straight month in Dec BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? TOKYO (XFN-ASIA) - Japan's monetary base fell for the 10th consecutive month in December when it dropped by 20.0 pct from a year earlier to 90.466 trln yen, preliminary data from the Bank of Japan showed. The year-on-year fall last month was the fifth steepest on record, and smaller than the record 22.3 pct drop in November. The monetary base dropped in March last year for the first time in more than five years following an end to the central bank's easy credit policy and it has been shrinking since then as the central bank was steadily draining surplus funds in short-term money markets. On March 9 last year, the BoJ ended a five-year-old super-loose monetary policy under which it flooded the short-term mone...

The latest in 'It's different this time' thinking comes from Tobin Smith at Change Wave in an article called Doom And Gloom Rehab. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Here's one more thing people don't understand about this economy. We have what I would call the super spenders -- the top 10%-20% earners in the United States. This group accounts for almost 90% of our economic activity when you talk about anything related to discretionary spending. We're talking about spending on a second home, new TVs, putting the kids through college, etc. If you study that group -- people over the age of 30 with some college -- the unemployment rate is about 1%. And the fact of the matter is that at the low end of economic spectrum, if they're having financial difficulty because their mortgage rates have gone up to the point where they can't make them, I mean, you know, as dreadf...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Lloyds TSB has warned that it is feeling the effects of the downturn in consumer sentiment, conceding that the growth of its lending to individuals has slowed and that is faces a higher impairment charge on bad debts to struggling customers. Although it maintained that it was on track to generate profits of more than?3.5 billion for the full year, Britain's fifth-largest bank warned that more of its heavily indebted customers were finding it difficult to repay their loans. Lloyds TSB also said it was reviewing the assumptions it makes about mortality rates for its customers and it was likely to 'strengthen' its reserves as a result. The bank said that this, combined with increased provisions to cover claims over missold mortgage endowment policies, would probably cost it about?300 million. Lloyds TSB said this morning that its mortgage lending rema...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR, said he believes existing home sales will gradually rise over the next year as 'pent up demand' is unleashed. In the meantime, while Mr. Yun awaits the unleashing of 'pent up demand,' we'll continue to follow the 'pent up supply' of housing that is being relentlessly unleashed. Inquiring minds noticing the huge pent up demand depicted by the above chart are no doubt asking 'Pent up demand at what price?' That's a good question too. I think some clues are in the following chart. Prior to things going completely insane in 2002, the last peak in house price to rental ratios was in 1980-1982 when mortgage rates were near 15%, Fed rates near 18% and inflation running rampant. Never before in history has it been so cheap to rent relative to own. Robert Shiller, a Yale University econo...

Shares of E*Trade Financial Corp. lost more than half their value Monday, plunging as the company faces more subprime-related write-downs and as analysts at Citigroup suggest a possible bankruptcy for the online broker. Bhatia also said E*Trade could realize losses of over $5 billion if it tries to liquidate its loan and asset-backed securities portfolio as a result of losing its funding sources. He cut his price target to $7.50 from $13, while Banc of America analyst Michael Hecht reduced his target by $1.50 to $10.50, citing diminished earnings visibility. Hecht maintained his 'neutral' rating on the stock.

There are dozens of articles about the run at the Northern Rock bank in the UK. Let's take a look at a handful of them. The Daily Mail is reporting Savers demand their?1.5bn in cash• Police called in to calm crowds of anxious savers• Under-siege cashiers dish out chocolates• Beleaguered Northern Rock boss: 'I'm so sorry'Asked if he believed his bank - the UK's fifth biggest mortgage lender - would be forced to close, a defiant Mr Applegarth [the CEO of Northern Rock] insisted: 'We can go on indefinitely. We have a?100billion mortgage book, so it is not an issue.'[Mish comment: You can go on indefinitely because you have a?100billion mortgage book? What kind of silliness is that? The bigger your mortgage book, the more likely you are to go under when all hell breaks loose.]Financial expert Justin Urquhart Stewart, of Seven Investment Management, said savers were wrong to panic. He said Northern Rock was 'no Barings', it had huge assets and the Bank of...

This post is a further continuation of the 'Saga of Sonnypage', an Atlanta area real estate broker who posts on my investment board the Motley FOOL. Previous Sonnypage highlights include:Lights Out in Georgia on 2006-07-27Soft Market Debris.... on 2006-08-02Is the Fed irrelevant? on 2006-08-03Scared in Atlanta....... on 2006-08-06Sonypage - 2006-08-27Most of our regulars here know by now that my wife and I are Realtors who live and practice real estate north of Atlanta. It's been a slow year to say the least. In my last post I mentioned that we currently have eight listings, but that I thought, for various reasons, perhaps only four or five of them might realistically be expected to sell. At the bottom of my list would be Kevin's new construction listing. We met Kevin almost a year ago. He was introduced to us by his son in law, also a builder, whom we had sold a home for a couple of years ago. Together we walked through the newly framed home Kevin wanted us to sell for...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The federal government is seeing a drop in the rate of growth of revenue as the debt crisis starts to slow economic growth, said Jim Nussle, the White House Budget chief. Asked on CNBC if the White House was seeing a drop in revenue growth, Nussle replied: 'we're starting to.' Private and government economists are forecasting a slight slowing in the U. S. economy, but are not projecting a recession, Nussle said Four years after Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected governor of California, vowing to 'tear up the state's credit card,' the actor and former body-builder is about to charge $7 billion to taxpayers' accounts. My Comment: Using the words 'Fiscal Discipline' and 'Arnold Schwarzenegger' in the same sentence together is a joke unless there is a 'negative' in the sentence somewhere. California is selling not...

The question of the day is 'Are banks a good buy?'The answer as well as the thought of the day comes from John Succo at Minyanville. Professor Succo talks about Deutsche Bank but the implication are much further reaching. Let's tune in. Succo: Deutsche Bank (DB) is an important tell...DB lost money in their capital markets division. Simply put, they lost money 'trading.' They are not alone. Banks and dealers are having trouble making money the old fashioned way, so they are taking much more risk trading these days. I mentioned last week that while regional banks do not have near the ability to do this, large money center banks and dealers often increase their risk to make money just at the wrong time. DB lost money doing it. Many other banks like JPM and BAC have so far been doing OK, trading (at least what they have admitted to for these banks can remark their loans and derivatives for a while to make things look good), but it does not mean they have not increased ...

Does anyone remember the mantra 'All Real Estate Is Local'? Somehow that plug has stopped. What stopped that plug is the fact that real estate is now down nationally for the first time since the great depression. It's now time for a new mantra. I propose the following: 'Don't Worry All Recessions Are Local'. With that, let's take a look a few states. Florida is in RecessionIt's crystal clear that Florida real estate is in a recession. It should also be clear that Florida in general is in a recession. Those who disagree can give Mike Morgan a buzz at Morgan Florida. He can fill you in on some of the details. Michigan is in RecessionThe state of Michigan is also in a recession. As proof I offer 42,000 jobs lost in state since August 2006.

FXStreet is reporting Russia central bank lowers rate on currency swaps to stabilise short-term rates. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Russia's central bank lowered the interest rate on roubles used to carry out currency swap transactions to an annual 8 pct from 10 pct, effective today, in an effort to stabilise short-term rates on the currency market, Interfax reported. The central bank also said the move should help regulate the liquidity of the banking system. Banks actively use currency swaps during unstable periods on currency markets and also when experiencing problems with liquidity. Today the Russian Central Bank revealed widespread liquidity problems for the banking system and announced a package of measures to prevent more trouble - lowering minimum reserve requirements and accepting credit as collateral. The Kazah banks and companies are big borrowers to the tune of $70 billio...

I am in a friendly game of 'top this' with Professor Fil Zucchi on housing. His latest post was More Gore In Housing Land in response to Homebuilders Feeling the Crunch. Following is a brief snip of Prof. Zucchi's post: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Comstock Homes (CHCI), [last] Friday announced that net orders for the third quarter were... 3 (that’s three without any zeros) and net new order revenues were -$11.5 mln (as in negative revenues). For the entire month of September, CHCI managed to close on four units at The Eclipse project, which is becoming pretty much synonymous with the faith of the company. The “big enchilada” looms in January of 2008, when the already extended, limited-recourse $40 mln balance on The Eclipse loan comes due to Corus Bank (CORS). To pay that off CHCI will have to sell more than 100 of the remaining 145 units, not a likely event at the current pa...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? COLUMBUS, Ohio - An increasing number of Ohioans who live in small towns and rural areas are losing their homes because of risky, high-interest mortgage loans, records show. Sub-prime loans, which generally carry interest rates above 8 percent, are designed for people who can't qualify for traditional mortgages because of poor credit, low income or the lack of a down payment. Mortgage brokers, who for years have marketed high-interest loans in poor city neighborhoods, have expanded their reach into the state's farmlands and Appalachian hills, The Columbus Dispatch reported for a story Sunday. That has contributed to Ohio's high foreclosure rate, the worst in the nation. About 10 percent of sub-prime borrowers were in foreclosure between July and September, triple the national figure, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The stat...

Yesterday we discussed the Pulte House From Hell. The August 13 BusinessWeek cover story Bonfire Of The Builders suggests that hell is fighting back. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Elizabeth and Armando Motto are living a real estate nightmare with a new breed of monster: the big homebuilder as lender. In November, 2005, the couple, who have four children, agreed to pay $540,000 for a newly built three-bedroom house in suburban Clarksburg, Md., near Washington, D. C. Rather than send them to a bank, the builder, Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH), offered to provide a mortgage itself in an arrangement of the sort that helped fuel the long housing boom across the country. But when it appeared that the Mottos might not qualify financially for the loan, things took a troubling turn. Beazer, according to the couple, inflated the pair's earnings in loan-application documents by incorrectly stating ...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? 'I was at a meeting this morning where someone said, 'Look, we need $150 billion just for infrastructure and transportation.' It's true,' Schwarzenegger told Reuters in an interview in a state office in San Francisco. 'We need $500 billion to rebuild California the way it ought to be,' he added. 'But this is of course too big for people to digest, so you don't talk about that.' Speaking about the total of $42.7 billion in general obligation bonds authorized by voters last year for public works spending, Schwarzenegger said: 'This was only the foot in the door, to whet the appetite.' In the short term, Schwarzenegger acknowledged California could face lower tax revenues than projected in his January budget plan, but said he opposed new taxes. He said he does not expect California to issue less debt if the economy ...

Bloomberg is reporting S&P, Moody's Mask $200 Billion of Subprime Bond Risk Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are masking burgeoning losses in the market for subprime mortgage bonds by failing to cut the credit ratings on about $200 billion of securities backed by home loans. The highest default rates on home loans in a decade have reduced prices of some bonds backed by mortgages to people with poor or limited credit by more than 50 cents on the dollar and forced New York-based Bear Stearns Cos. to offer $3.2 billion to bail out a money-losing hedge fund. Almost 65 percent of the bonds in indexes that track subprime mortgage debt don't meet the ratings criteria in place when they were sold, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. [Mish comment: 65% of the subprime bonds no longer meet the original (and flimsy) initial ratings criteria. One might think that would be reason to re-rate the bonds. Think again.] That may just be the begi...

Minyanville's Jeff Macke does some of the best analysis on the retail sector that you can find anywhere. Here is the latest scorecard from professor Macke. As you can see, there were big misses by Ambercrombie (ANF), American Eagle (AEO), Ann Taylor (ANN), Chicos (CHS), Dillards (DDS), The Gap (GPS), Hot Topic (HOTT), Kohls (KSS), Limited (LTD), Nordstrom (JWN), and Sharper Image (SHRP).Macke's company by company thoughts can be found in October A Month to Forget For Retail. This does not bode well for the upcoming Christmas season, retail sector hiring, or store expansion plans. Wal-Mart has already announced a second reduction in the number of U. S stores it will be building. I expect more cutbacks announcements from other stores. The above chart says why. Mike Shedlock / Mishhttp://globaleconomicanalysis. blogspot. comClick Here To Scroll Thru My Five Most Recent Posts

You can sometimes tell how much trouble a company is in simply by looking at their ads. This seems to be one of those cases. An unheard of 15% commission BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? You can sometimes tell how much trouble a company is in simply by looking at their ads. This seems to be one of those cases. We are pleased to announce a new Real Estate Agent Commission Incentive program for our Prestige Builder Partners, LLC (PBP) projects throughout the State of Florida. This program will apply to sales, at any PBP property, on or after July 24, 2006 and through August 31, 2006. This unique program of incentives will permit your Agents to earn commissions as high as 15% on the sale and closing of one of our condominium units. This is how it works, each Agent will earn an escalating commission based on the number of units sold by the Agent and closed within 30 days of the sale. The first cl...

Mortgage Lending and Financials were not the place to on Thursday (and the rout is continuing so far today). Here is Thursday's scorecard: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Mortgage Lending and Financials were not the place to on Thursday (and the rout is continuing so far today). Here is Thursday's scorecard: GMAC, the home and auto lender formerly owned by General Motors Corp. reported a $1.6 billion loss on lower demand for mortgages and higher provisions for failed loans and impaired assets. Radian (RDN) , the third-largest U. S. mortgage insurer, reported a $703.9 million loss after writing off $468 million on a unit that invested in subprime mortgages. MetLife (MET) lost $25 million from its $1.8 billion of investments in 25 hedge funds in the third quarter, Chief Investment Officer Steven Kandarian told analysts on a conference call today. The New York-based company had another ...