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On December 6th ADP said Private-sector jobs rise 158,000 in November. Hiring...

On December 6th ADP said Private-sector jobs rise 158,000 in November. Hiring pace is consistent with 'modestly below-trend' economic growthBased on a string of huge misses by ADP, I predicted the official November numbers would badly miss as well, coming in at 88,000. Bart at NowAndFutures predicted 116,500. I offered to wager a box of Omaha Steaks (10-oz ribeyes) on the outcome. Fortunately for me Bart declined. ADP was indeed high but I would have lost the bet. Here are the official employment numbers for November 2006.

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? A real estate broker Tuesday accused Lennar Homes of shoddy workmanship at three homes in the Martin's Crossing subdivision on Kanner Highway, including roof and electrical problems he called potentially life-threatening. Speaking during a Martin County Commission meeting, broker Mike Morgan said he is filing complaints against Lennar Homes with the state Department of Building and Professional Regulation, the Florida Attorney General and the Federal Trade Commission. Inspections of the three houses on Fleming Way showed defective roofs with loose and broken tiles and incorrect installation that might not be able to withstand a hurricane, Morgan charged. In addition, Morgan charged that stucco installed on the houses was too thin and probably would lead to moisture behind the walls and ultimately mold. NOTE: Although we are based in Florida, we are working...

I recently finished reading two books, both of which...

I recently finished reading two books, both of which I can recommend. The first is 'Just What I Said' by Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum and the second is 'Master Traders' by Fari Hamzei of Hamzei Analytics. I did not know what to expect from either book, but once started they were both hard to put down. The books are completely different in style and content and perhaps who they will appeal to. Let's take a look at each. Just What I Said'Just What I Said' will appeal to anyone who wants to learn how the real economy works, in easy to understand lessons cleverly disguised as light hearted articles. The book (broken out into 19 distinct recurring themes) is a collection of the best columns that she has written for Bloomberg over the past seven years, some 1300+ columns in total. The amazing thing is her columns are as pertinent today as when she originally wrote them. There are so many misconceptions about the economy floating around that simply refuse to d...

Inquiring minds just might be asking for a quick global...

Inquiring minds just might be asking for a quick global recap of the current state of affairs in the global credit crisis. Here goes:Global Credit Crisis European StyleECB emergency fund tapped for €3.9bnMinyan Peter: Why Europe Matters MoreMinyan Peter: Should we see more trouble in the European bank market - and remember, we've already taken down two German banks and a British bank - I believe that all bets are off on the dollar/Euro exchange rate. At least in the short run. Global Credit Crisis U. S. StyleCommercial Paper Market in U. S. Shrinks for Seventh Week in Row, Fed Says

I have received numerous Emails asking me to comment on Fannie...

I have received numerous Emails asking me to comment on Fannie Mae's fuzzy math and More doubts about Fannie Mae's disclosures. Tanta on Calculated Risk's Blog explains the situation quite well in a very lengthy post enh1d Fuzzy Math or Fuzzy Reporter? Following are some snips from Tanta. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? its credit loss ratio in the Q3 filing. .... Eavis, moving from a change in presentation to a change in calculation with intent to mislead at the speed of light, says “Uh oh. It’s Enron all over again.” .... Fannie Mae stock started to tank badly, and Fannie scheduled an analyst conference call for Friday morning to address this one very specific issue in one table in the Q. Fannie Mae explained, among other things, that the item excluded from the credit loss ratio calculation is, actually, included in net charge-offs on the consolidated financial statements. Howe...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? A record 17.9 million U. S. homes stood empty in the third quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure. The figure is a 7.8 percent gain from a year ago, when 16.6 million properties were vacant, the U. S. Census Bureau said in a report today. About 2.07 million empty homes were for sale, compared with 1.94 million a year earlier, the report said. New foreclosures have risen to a record, led by defaults in adjustable-rate loans to people with tainted or limited credit histories, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Home - price declines and tougher lending standards are making it difficult for owners who fall behind in mortgage payments to sell or refinance into better loans. The U. S. homeownership rate fell for the fourth consecutive quarter to 68.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, from 68.9 percent a year ago, ...

Let's take a look at some current economic reports...

Let's take a look at some current economic reports about Japan. Hemscott is reporting Japan monetary base falls for 10th straight month in Dec BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? TOKYO (XFN-ASIA) - Japan's monetary base fell for the 10th consecutive month in December when it dropped by 20.0 pct from a year earlier to 90.466 trln yen, preliminary data from the Bank of Japan showed. The year-on-year fall last month was the fifth steepest on record, and smaller than the record 22.3 pct drop in November. The monetary base dropped in March last year for the first time in more than five years following an end to the central bank's easy credit policy and it has been shrinking since then as the central bank was steadily draining surplus funds in short-term money markets. On March 9 last year, the BoJ ended a five-year-old super-loose monetary policy under which it flooded the short-term mone...